OECD raises global economic growth forecast for 2023 – DW – 03/17/2023
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects global economic growth of 2.6% in 2023. This figure, published in OECD report in Paris on Friday, March 17, higher than in its forecast in November 2022 (2.2%).
Expectations for global economic growth in 2024 have also been improved, from 2.7% forecast in November 2022 to 2.9%. According to experts, consumer and business sentiment is gradually improving, and pressure inflation, is weakening. Yes, in most countries “big twenty” (G20) the level of price growth should be reduced this year from 8.1% to 5.9%, and in 2024 – to 4.5%, analysts believe.
Other positive factors for the development of the global economy this year, they consider the opening of the Chinese economy and the expected decline in commodity prices.
However, according to OECD estimates, global economic growth in 2023 and 2024 will remain below long-term trend levels, given the continued tightening of the monetary policy of the world’s largest central banks. Another circumstance, due to which the risk of contraction of the global economy remains significant, is, from the point of view of the OECD, the uncertainty of development wars in Ukraine.
OECD forecasts for Germany and the euro area as a whole
The German economy, despite improved market forecasts, will grow at a slower pace in 2023 than in most other large industrial countries, follows from the report of the organization.
Germany’s GDP will increase by 0.3% this year, and by 1.7% in 2024. In November 2022, OECD analysts predicted a 0.3% contraction in Germany’s GDP in 2023 and a subsequent growth of 1.5% in 2024. Inflation rate in Germanyaccording to the forecast, this year will decrease from 8.7% to 6.7%, and in the future – to 3.1%.
The eurozone economy will grow by 0.8% in 2023 and by 1.5% in 2024, the report says. Previous forecasts were slightly less optimistic: 0.5% and 1.4% growth, respectively. The upward adjustment is due to the expected mitigation of the negative effects of rising energy prices.